Buyers Hit Pause. Rates Just Blinked.
Two numbers landed this week, and together they tell you exactly where the DC and Maryland housing market stands. First: signed contracts nationwide just hit the lowest level NAR has ever recorded. Second: mortgage rates finally dipped, from 7.40% to 7.32%, the first weekly drop since August. One is a symptom, the other might be the start of the cure. Facts over feelings. Math over emotion. Let's look at both.
What Happened in the DC and Maryland Housing Market This Week
On October 20, the National Association of REALTORS reported that its Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% in September to 66.0, down 11.3% from a year ago. HousingWire noted it's the lowest reading in the history of the index. Pending sales are signed contracts that haven't closed yet, so they're the best early read on what closings will look like in October and November. The South, which includes DC and Maryland, fell 8.2% for the month and 12.0% year over year. NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, put it simply: "fast-rising mortgage rates" weakened the market.
Closer to home, Bright MLS's weekly report for the week ending October 18 showed 4,164 new contracts across its Mid-Atlantic footprint, down 15.5% from last year and the sixth straight week at a five-year low. Median time to contract was 34 days, five days slower than a year ago. And canceled listings jumped 43.2%.
Then on Thursday, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed averaged 7.32%, down from 7.40% the prior two weeks. A year ago it was 6.19%. The 15-year fixed slipped to 6.68%.
Here's why the contract numbers fell off a cliff. On August 20, the 30-year sat at 6.65%. Seven weeks later it was 7.40%. That's three-quarters of a point in under two months, and buyers felt every bit of it. A lot of them just stopped writing offers.
County by County: The DC and Maryland Housing Market Slowdown
The latest county data (September, Maryland REALTORS and Bright MLS) shows new pending sales down double digits everywhere in our area.
Washington, DC Real Estate
Across the DC metro, new pending sales fell 17.1% in September and showings dropped 16.9%, per Bright MLS data reported by UrbanTurf. In the District itself, the median slipped 2.9% to $660,000 and homes took a median 36 days to sell. At 7.32% with 10% down, the payment on that median is about $4,080 a month in principal and interest, roughly $267 more than at August's rate.
Montgomery County Homes
Pending sales were down 17.7% while active inventory rose 27.2%. The median held at $610,000 (+1.8%). The rate jump since August adds about $247 a month on a median-priced home with 10% down.
Prince George's County Real Estate
Pending sales fell 16.4% and the median was flat at $450,000. That's about $2,782 a month in principal and interest at today's rate, $182 more than in August.
Anne Arundel County Housing Market
Still the tightest market around: pending sales down "only" 12.3%, the median up 2.4% to $503,000, and homes selling in a median 15 days. The rate jump costs about $204 a month here.
Harford County Homes
The biggest contract drop in our area: pending sales down 21.0%, with the median at $403,495 (+2.2%). Extra cost since August: about $163 a month.
Charles County Real Estate
Pending sales fell 20.1% and median days on market stretched to 39, up from 25. The median dipped 1.1% to $459,999.
A Quick Look at Northern Virginia
Same story across the river. NVAR reported September pending sales down 16.2% with active listings up 30.7%.
What It Means for Buyers
The 0.08-point dip saves you about $20 to $32 a month on a median-priced home in our area. That's nice. It's not a game changer. What is a game changer is the lack of competition. With contracts at five-year lows and homes taking longer to go under contract, you have room to negotiate on price, closing costs, repairs and even a rate buydown paid by the seller. If you need a refresher on the process, start with my step-by-step guide to buying a house.
One warning: don't wait for rates to fall back to 6.65% before you start. If they do drop, every buyer who paused will come back at the same time, and that competition comes back with them.
What It Means for Sellers
A 43% jump in canceled listings tells you a lot of sellers listed at spring prices, sat, and gave up. Don't be one of them. Price to today's buyer, who's paying about $180 to $270 more a month than a buyer in August. Offer concessions that lower the payment, like a rate buydown, instead of just cutting the price. Before you list, read 4 questions to ask before selling a home, and get a real number with a free home value estimate.
Dan's Take
This is my interpretation, not a forecast. A record-low pending index sounds scary, but look at what isn't happening: prices aren't collapsing. Medians are flat to slightly up in most of our counties. Owners aren't being forced to sell, so they're pulling listings instead of slashing prices. That's a standoff, not a crash. The Fed meets October 27–28, and markets expect a hold. If rates keep drifting down from here, I'd expect buyers who sat out September to start showing up again by winter. The window where you get both less competition and a slightly better rate may be shorter than people think.
Final Takeaway
Rates blinked, but buyers haven't come back yet. That gap is where the deals are. Your one action item: run your payment at 7.32% this week, whether you're buying or pricing a home to sell, so you're making decisions on today's math instead of August's.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are pending home sales?
Homes with a signed purchase contract that haven't closed yet. They're a leading indicator, since most pending sales close 30 to 60 days later.
Are home prices falling in DC and Maryland?
Not broadly. In September, medians were up in Montgomery, Anne Arundel and Harford, flat in Prince George's, and down slightly in Charles and in the District.
How much does a 0.08% rate drop save?
On a 30-year loan, about $20 to $32 a month on median-priced homes in our area with 10% down. Small, but it adds up over the life of the loan.
Want me to run the numbers on your situation? I'm always happy to talk it through.
Dan Wheeler | Keller Williams Capital Properties
Contact Dan · What's My Home Worth? · Schedule a Call · (301) 806-3179
Sources: NAR Pending Home Sales (Oct. 20, 2026); HousingWire; Freddie Mac PMMS (Oct. 22, 2026); Bright MLS weekly market report (week ending Oct. 18); UrbanTurf (Bright MLS September data); Maryland REALTORS Housing Statistics, September 2026; NVAR. Payments are principal and interest only on a 30-year fixed with 10% down, and exclude taxes, insurance, HOA and mortgage insurance. Rates change daily. This post is for information only and is not financial or lending advice.
