More Homes, Fewer Buyers, 7.4% Interest Rates
If you've been watching the DC and Maryland housing market this fall and thinking, "Wait, didn't homes used to fly off the shelf around here?" you're not imagining it. September numbers are in. In Montgomery County, active inventory is up 27.2% from a year ago, while the number of homes going under contract fell 17.7%.
More homes, fewer buyers. That's the headline across Washington, DC, Montgomery County, Prince George's County, Anne Arundel County, Harford County and Charles County. But prices are a different story. They haven't cracked, and that's where the details matter.
What Happened in the DC and Maryland Housing Market in September?
Maryland REALTORS' September 2026 housing statistics, based on Bright MLS data current as of Oct. 12, show the same pattern almost everywhere. Statewide, closed sales fell 7.8% and pending sales dropped 16.5%. Active inventory climbed 21.3%, and the median sales price barely moved, up 0.5% to $432,000.
The reason is the mortgage rate. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on Oct. 15, compared with 6.27% a year ago. Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said in the September report that "more buyers are being priced out of the market." The September Consumer Price Index then came in hotter than expected at 3.7%, which HousingWire reports raises the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike.
County-by-County: What the Numbers Say
Washington, DC Real Estate
DC is the slowest-moving market in the region right now. According to UrbanTurf's breakdown of the Bright MLS report, the median sold price in the District slipped 2.9% to $660,000. Homes took a median of 36 days to sell, and supply is approaching six months. That's close to balanced-market territory, and buyers in DC have real negotiating room for the first time in years.
Montgomery County Homes
Montgomery County is still the priciest Maryland county on this list, with a median of $610,000, up 1.8%. Sales fell 9.4%, pendings fell 17.7% and active inventory jumped 27.2% to 2,447 homes. Months of inventory rose from 2.4 to 3.0. Median days on market held at 22, so well-priced homes are still selling on schedule.
Prince George's County Real Estate
Prices in Prince George's County didn't move at all: the median was $450,000 both this September and last. Closed sales dropped 12.7%, the biggest decline among the five counties, and months of inventory climbed from 2.7 to 3.7. For buyers, that means more choices and more time. For sellers, the pricing has to be right from day one.
Anne Arundel County Housing Market
Anne Arundel is the tightest market in the group. The median rose 2.4% to $503,000, homes sold in a median of just 15 days, and there are only 2.4 months of inventory. Even here, though, active listings are up 28.5% and pending sales are down 12.3%.
Harford County Homes
Harford County is the outlier. Closed sales actually rose 9.1%, and the median price increased 2.2% to $403,495. Look ahead, though: pending sales fell 21.0%, the steepest drop of the five counties, and median days on market stretched from 15 to 22. October and November closings will likely look softer.
Charles County Real Estate
Charles County is where homes are taking the longest. Median days on market jumped from 25 to 39, pending sales fell 20.1% and the median price dipped 1.1% to $459,999. Sellers in Waldorf, La Plata and the rest of Charles County should plan for a longer timeline than they would have expected a year ago.
A Quick Look at Northern Virginia
Across the river, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors reported active listings up 30.7% and new pending sales down 16.2%, yet the median price there rose 4.2% to $744,950. It's the same story with a bigger price tag.
Why Buyers Are Pulling Back: The Monthly Payment
On a $500,000 loan, principal and interest at 6.27% comes to about $3,085 a month. At 7.40% it's about $3,462. That's roughly $377 more every month for the same house, before taxes and insurance. Multiply that by 12 months, and you understand why showings are down.
What It Means for Buyers in DC and Maryland
You probably have something you haven't had in years: time and leverage. With more listings and fewer people out at showings, there's less pressure to waive inspections or make a decision after one visit. That's especially true in DC, Prince George's County and Charles County, where homes are sitting longer.
The trade-off is the rate. Don't build your plan around rates falling soon. Inflation is moving the wrong way, and the Fed has been raising rates, not cutting them. Buy a payment you can live with at today's rate. If rates drop later, refinancing is a bonus, not the plan. If you're new to the process, start with my guide on how to buy a house.
What It Means for Sellers in DC and Maryland
Your home is no longer competing only with your neighbor's. In Montgomery County alone, it's competing with about 500 more active listings than a year ago, and with buyers who can afford to wait.
That doesn't mean prices are collapsing. The medians say they aren't. It does mean pricing and preparation matter again. If a home is overpriced, sits for weeks and needs a price cut, it usually ends up selling for less than it would have with the right price on day one. Before you list, run through these 4 questions to ask before selling a home, or get a quick read on what your home is worth in today's market.
Dan's Take
This is my interpretation, not a forecast. I don't see a crash in these numbers. I see a market that's returning to normal, and that feels rough because the last few years were anything but normal.
Prices are holding because most DC and Maryland homeowners have low-rate mortgages and stable jobs, so they aren't forced to sell. What's changed is the pace and the power balance. Buyers can negotiate again. Sellers who price for the market they wish they had will learn that lesson on Zillow, one price cut at a time.
Facts over feelings. Math over emotion. That applies to both sides of the table this fall.
Final Takeaway
The fall 2026 DC and Maryland housing market isn't good or bad. It's slower, with more choices and a higher cost of borrowing. Your one action item: If you're buying, get a fresh pre-approval at today's rates and know your real monthly number. If you're selling, look at the active listings competing with yours in your county, not just what your neighbor sold for in the spring.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it a buyer's market in Maryland right now?
Not quite, but it's moving that way. Maryland had 3.5 months of inventory in September, up from 2.8 a year earlier. Prince George's (3.7) and Charles (3.6) are the closest to balanced among the counties covered here, while Anne Arundel (2.4) is still tight. DC is nearer to balanced at close to six months.
Are home prices falling in Montgomery County and Prince George's County?
No. In September 2026, Montgomery County's median rose 1.8% to $610,000, and Prince George's County held flat at $450,000, according to Maryland REALTORS and Bright MLS. What's falling is the number of sales, not prices.
Will mortgage rates go down soon?
No one can promise that. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.40% on Oct. 15, inflation rose to 3.7% in September, and markets are weighing another Fed hike. Plan around today's rate.
National headlines are interesting, but real estate decisions happen locally. If you're wondering what these changes mean for your home's value or your next move in DC or Maryland, let's have a conversation.
Dan Wheeler | Keller Williams Capital Properties
Contact Dan · What's My Home Worth? · Schedule a Call · (301) 806-3179
Sources: Maryland REALTORS September 2026 Housing Statistics, data provided by Bright MLS (current as of Oct. 12, 2026); Bright MLS September 2026 report (Oct. 12, 2026) and UrbanTurf (Oct. 13, 2026); Freddie Mac PMMS (Oct. 15, 2026); HousingWire (Oct. 14, 2026); Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (Oct. 16, 2026). Market data reflects September 2026 activity. This article is for informational purposes and is not financial, legal or tax advice.
